Amare: To Trade or not to Trade?

Much has been made recently about the possibility of trading Phoenix Suns star Amare Stoudemire. Naturally, the local media has been all over the possibility of a blockbuster trade (for articles by actual credible sources click here and here). Among us casual fans, meanwhile, conversation has run the gamut from "he (Stoudemire) is a bum who doesn't try, get him outta here!" to "He's a cornerstone, he's the face of the franchise, he can cure cancer with his mind!" And since everyone else seems to have an opinion, I may as well give my $0.02.

Does anyone think that trading Amare is actually going to help the Suns, in the short-term or the long-term?

In the interest of full disclosure, I was very intrigued by the trade talk regarding Stoudemire last year. Like many fans last year, I fell victim to the excessive expectations associated with the team and, upon their failure to meet said expectations, wanted Kerr to blow it all up. Plus, the names were sexier last year (Stephen Curry in Purple and Orange? I could dig it.) because the team still had a year of control over Stoudemire. This year, all of the trade talk seems to smack of desperation, of wanting to get something for Amare, rather than letting him walk in the offseason for nothing. This is understandable, since Sarver seems to feel (as I do) that Stoudemire does not deserve the max contract that he covets, and is therefore reluctant to enter negotiations with him.

Going back to the question at the top, let's look at the first part, the short-term benefits of potentially trading Amare. If the only question is, "does trading Amare help the team reach the playoffs this season," then the short answer has to be, "no, no it does not." While the general fan consensus is that Amare does not consistently play up to his immense potential, he still has averaged at least twenty points every season since his rookie year (02-03).* Big men with scoring numbers like these do not grow on trees. Among active power forwards, only Chris Bosh, Dirk Novitzki and Tim Duncan have comparable scoring numbers. Contrast this level of production with the players the Suns could conceivably get in return. Of the players that the Suns could receive, the best individual player is probably the Sixers' Andre Iguodala, who is currently leading Philadelphia with 17.3 ppg. However, swingmen who can score are far more common than pure power forwards who can score. Right now, the Suns look like a no. 4 or 5 playoff seed in the West, who, with a few breaks, could make it into the second or third round of the playoffs. However, with the loss of Amare, the team is resigning itself to have, at best, a low seed and a "one and done" playoff appearance. Even if a complementary player were included in the deal, there would be a significant drop-off in scoring this season--a drop-off that could conceivably drop the Suns out of the playoff race entirely.

*This statistic discounts Amare's 05/06 season, where he averaged 8.7 ppg while playing all of three games.

However, that's obviously not really the point of the potential trade. No one is denying that the Suns are an aging group, and with Nash's contract expiring after next season, many fans believe that the time has come to tear it all up. Trading Amare for a couple of decent role players and a first-round pick in the 2010 draft (which the team does not currently possess) would certainly be an excellent way to begin this process. However, there is one problem with this line of reasoning: the Suns shouldn't be broken up because they are...well...actually still kinda good. I mentioned above that the team as currently constructed could make it to the second round of the playoffs, and it is not outside the realm of possibility that they could beat teams like Nuggets or Mavericks in a 7-game series. Trading Amare means sacrificing the rest of this season (and the revenue that would come from a playoff series) and probably next as well in exchange for a draft pick and some spare parts. Call me crazy, but that doesn't seem to be worth the effort to me.

Holding onto Amare is a risk, but he is a talented enough player to make such a risk worthwhile. He may opt out, and this post may be made to look exceptionally stupid, but you never know for sure. Indeed, some of his recent comments indicate that he is at least considering staying in Phoenix for next year. We may have this same conversation again next year, but for now I simply want to savor the opportunity to watch an entertaining playoff contender led by one of the best power forwards in the NBA.

(All stats from basketball-reference.com)